HERE'S WHY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOW: IT'S BASED ON THE "HOUSEHOLD SURVEY" ; AP:
In September, the household survey showed that the number of people who said they were unemployed fell by 456,000. The number of people who said they were working increased even more — by 873,000.
Unlike the payroll survey, the household survey captures farm workers, the self-employed and people who work for new companies. It also does a better job of capturing hiring by small businesses.
But the household survey is more volatile from month to month. The Labor Department surveys just 60,000 households, a small fraction of the more than 100 million U.S. households.
ACCORDING TO THE NYTIMES, THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS.... 400,000! YUP:
These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political.
The volatility arises because the numbers are based on a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000.
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