In a absolutely shocking development, initial claims for the week ended May 5 printed in line with expectations of 370K, but to make the Mainstream Media's life easy and unleash all those "Initial Claims Decline by 2,000" headlines, last week's number was increased from 370K to 372K (ignore that NSA number increased by 2,515). Continuing claims missed expectations of 3250K printing at 3260K, but down from an upward revised 3289K. Needs to say this week's 370K adjusted print will be revised higher to 372-373K and the MSM will fall for it all over again. More importantly, the ongoing collapse in those collecting extended benefits now that legislation has halted extensions is becoming more acute: 40K dropped off Extended Claims and EUCs.

May 17 2012

Initial Claims Miss, Media Spin: "Unchanged"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2012 08:35 -0400

While claims were expected to improve from last week's pre-revision print of 367K, we got not only a miss but a deterioration, with the print coming at 370K on expectations of 365K. But all is well, for the media already has its spin: "Unchanged", because you see last week's number was as usual pushed up higher to 370K, hence no change. Of course, next week this week's 370K will be revised to 374K or something, but the algos will be long past caring. What is worse is that the exodus from the cliff continues, as those off EUCs and Extended benefits declined by another 68K (and down by 1.14 million from this time last year): people who no longer get their weekly allowance from Uncle Sam and having been without a job for 99 weeks are pretty much guaranteed to not find a job, thus making them rely exclusively on disability and foodstamps.

Initial Claims are stabilizing around 20% higher than pre-crisis levels - not exactly positive...

May 10 2012

Same Trick Different Week: "Initial Claims Decline Following Revision"; Deficit Surge Pushes Q1 GDP To 1.5%

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2012 08:44 -0400

Stop us when this sounds familiar. Last week's 365K number has been revised to 368K, which is where the expectations for this week's print were. Instead, we got 367K claims this week, a 1K beat to expectations, which will be a 2K miss next week of course, but at least the pre-election propaganda media has their headline: "Initial Claims improve by 1,000." And scene. Naturally, the same thing happened for continuing claims, which beat expectations of 3275K, printing at 3229K, with the last week's print revised to 3290K from 3276K. The more disturbing form an end demand standpoint data, is that yet another 40K dropped off extended claims and EUCs. Finally in what is the best new for the market, and worst for the Economy, is that the March trade deficit soared to $51.8 billion, on expectations of -$50 billion, which was the biggest trade balance drop in 10 months. What this means is that Q1 GDP which already is tracking at 1.9%, just got lobbed to 1.5%. Yes: the Q1 GDP first revision will likely show the 2.2% number is now in the low to mid 1% range.