Green Energy
This month's report from the Bureau of Lies and Statistics:
CNBC:
Unemployment Falls to 8.5%; 200,000 New Jobs Created
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.5 percent last month as job creation was more robust than expected, providing continued signs that the nation's labor market is improving gradually.
Growth in manufacturing jobs helped offset a loss in government positions, while wages edged higher and the length of the work week also lengthened a bit.
The unemployment rate — a hotly contested number because of the rise in potential workers who have quit looking for jobs — has fallen 0.6 percentage points since August.
However, an alternative measure of unemployment that counts discouraged workers also dropped sharply. The so-called U-6 number, more encompassing than the headline number the government publicizes, dropped to 15.2 percent from 15.6 percent in November.
"Overall the report was pretty solid through and through," said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at Charles Schwab in San Francisco. "This helps to continue the snowball rolling downhill, as the more people hired and the more people working increases demand. Employers have to hire to meet that demand. It gets the ball rolling and we are starting to see a self-sustaining expansion phase take hold."
The labor-force participation rate, considered another key metric regarding optimism in the workforce, was unchanged at 64 percent. The average duration of unemployment remains near a record high at just under 41 weeks, though the number of those unemployed for 27 weeks or longer fell by 92,000.
Those not in the workforce at all finished 2011 at an annualized record high, but even that measure fell in December to 2.54 million, a drop of about half a million.
the rest of that nonsense here
Now, I'm not feeling up to the rant at the moment so I'm just going to borrow Zero Hedge's
Massive Beat? Not So Fast - Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 "Jobs" Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk 
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2012 08:59 -0500
Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc). Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure). We should see a payback in next month's report."
And this piece as well:
Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2012 10:23 -0500
One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people "drop out" of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population. In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate. To get that we used the average rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8% (chart 1). We then apply this participation rate to the civilian noninstitutional population to get what an "implied" labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed (chart 2). Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data. It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) - basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.
Reported and Implied number of Unemployed:
-
OMFG: Nearly One Million Drop from Labor Force in October – Lowest Participation Rate Since Carter The unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October.The US labor force participation rate, plunged from 63.2% to 62.8% in October. Zero...
- No Depression
Like I've been saying. . . Daniel Amerman, with thanks to Will: Making 9 Million Jobless "Vanish": How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics By Daniel R. Amerman, CFAOverviewWhen we look at broad measures of jobs and population, then...
-
Newsmax: Unemployment Tricks: Jobs Claim Made by 'Shrinking' Workforce Monday, 06 Feb 2012 10:11 PM By Andrew Henry Last week, the White House claimed that unemployment dropped for the fifth consecutive month to 8.3 percent — the lowest it has...
-
Mike Shedlock: Digging Still Deeper In Friday's Jobs Report; What's the Real Unemployment Rate? Every month the government posts the unemployment rate yet few know where the unemployment rate comes from, how it is determined, and the relationship...
-
Unemployment rate down because people quit looking for work. Stupid fucking numbers games The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent for the month of June even as the U.S. government dropped 225,000 Census jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday...
Green Energy
This month's report from the Bureau of Lies and Statistics:
CNBC:
Unemployment Falls to 8.5%; 200,000 New Jobs Created
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.5 percent last month as job creation was more robust than expected, providing continued signs that the nation's labor market is improving gradually.
Growth in manufacturing jobs helped offset a loss in government positions, while wages edged higher and the length of the work week also lengthened a bit.
The unemployment rate — a hotly contested number because of the rise in potential workers who have quit looking for jobs — has fallen 0.6 percentage points since August.
However, an alternative measure of unemployment that counts discouraged workers also dropped sharply. The so-called U-6 number, more encompassing than the headline number the government publicizes, dropped to 15.2 percent from 15.6 percent in November.
"Overall the report was pretty solid through and through," said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at Charles Schwab in San Francisco. "This helps to continue the snowball rolling downhill, as the more people hired and the more people working increases demand. Employers have to hire to meet that demand. It gets the ball rolling and we are starting to see a self-sustaining expansion phase take hold."
The labor-force participation rate, considered another key metric regarding optimism in the workforce, was unchanged at 64 percent. The average duration of unemployment remains near a record high at just under 41 weeks, though the number of those unemployed for 27 weeks or longer fell by 92,000.
Those not in the workforce at all finished 2011 at an annualized record high, but even that measure fell in December to 2.54 million, a drop of about half a million.
the rest of that nonsense here
Now, I'm not feeling up to the rant at the moment so I'm just going to borrow Zero Hedge's
Massive Beat? Not So Fast - Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 "Jobs" Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk
Enamored with the 200,000 number? Don't be - the reason why the market has basically yawned at this BLS data is that as Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw reports, 42,000 of the 200,000 is basically a seasonal quirk, which will be given back next month, meaning the true adjusted number is 158,000, essentially right on top of the expectation. From David Greenlaw: "some of the strength in this report should be discounted because of an seasonal quirk in the courier category of payrolls (Fed-ex, UPS, etc). Jobs in this sector jumped 42,000 in December, repeating a pattern seen in 2009 and 2010 (see attached figure). We should see a payback in next month's report."
And this piece as well:
Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate
One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people "drop out" of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population. In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate. To get that we used the average rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8% (chart 1). We then apply this participation rate to the civilian noninstitutional population to get what an "implied" labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed (chart 2). Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data. It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) - basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.
Labor Force Participation since 1980:
Difference between Reported and implied unemployment rate:
-
OMFG: Nearly One Million Drop from Labor Force in October – Lowest Participation Rate Since Carter The unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October.The US labor force participation rate, plunged from 63.2% to 62.8% in October. Zero...
- No Depression
Like I've been saying. . . Daniel Amerman, with thanks to Will: Making 9 Million Jobless "Vanish": How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics By Daniel R. Amerman, CFAOverviewWhen we look at broad measures of jobs and population, then...
-
Newsmax: Unemployment Tricks: Jobs Claim Made by 'Shrinking' Workforce Monday, 06 Feb 2012 10:11 PM By Andrew Henry Last week, the White House claimed that unemployment dropped for the fifth consecutive month to 8.3 percent — the lowest it has...
-
Mike Shedlock: Digging Still Deeper In Friday's Jobs Report; What's the Real Unemployment Rate? Every month the government posts the unemployment rate yet few know where the unemployment rate comes from, how it is determined, and the relationship...
-
Unemployment rate down because people quit looking for work. Stupid fucking numbers games The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent for the month of June even as the U.S. government dropped 225,000 Census jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday...