Green Energy
Wall Street Journal:
Iran Looms Large in Libya Decisions
As debate escalates over whether to intervene militarily to help Libyan rebels oust Muammar Ghadafi, the specter lurking in the background—both for those who want to intervene and those wary of doing so—is Iran.
The Iranian factor is little discussed but omnipresent. Understanding how it forms the backdrop is crucial to understanding the argument unfolding this week, in Washington, in Europe and at the United Nations, about whether to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.
Those pushing for intervention worry that the lesson Iran will take away if Mr. Gadhafi survives is that leaders who give ground to democracy protesters (see Hosni Mubarak) are swept away. Meanwhile, those who brutally crush protesters (Libya's strongman) are the ones who hang on. For Iranian leaders already disposed to crushing their own pro-democracy dissidents, the message will be clear.
Those wary of intervening, including many in the Obama administration, worry that Western intervention will play directly into the narrative Tehran's leaders have been spinning to justify cracking down on their own dissidents: that the U.S. and its Zionist allies are waiting to take advantage of any Mideast unrest to seize control of the region and its oil assets.
This Iranian narrative holds that the protesters in Tehran's streets are either active or unwitting agents of this insidious American conspiracy. Because any military intervention in Libya inevitably would be led by American forces, it would be used to further the argument. Indeed, an examination of statements by Iranian leaders in recent days shows this is precisely how they are framing the Libya question.
With Iran in position to make trouble by fomenting unrest among its Shiite brethren in nearby Bahrain, the question of how Mideast turmoil might advance Tehran's interests already loomed large. Now it figures to play more directly into the Libya debate, for Tehran is trying to play both sides of the argument, rhetorically supporting the Libyan rebels while opposing Western help for them.
The debate took on a whole new cast over the weekend when the Arab League, in a stunning turn, asked the United Nations Security Council to establish a no-fly zone to prevent a fellow Arab leader, Mr. Gadhafi, from using his own aircraft against Libyan rebels. Coupled with the fact that rebels seem to be losing ground in Libya's east, the Arab League statement prompted a new discussion at the U.N. on Monday.
Still, reluctance persists. China, which happens to hold the presidency of the Security Council this month, resists any military move. The fact that Libya's neighbor, Algeria, opposed the Arab League request undercuts the message to some extent.
Meantime the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq, which illustrate that military intervention is easy to start and hard to finish, and that the U.S. will be expected to fix any country it enters, continue to weigh heavily on the Obama administration.
It's hard to know how much Iran figured in the Arab League's decision to ask for a no-fly zone. But clearly, the specter of a radical Iranian regime taking advantage of unrest in the region in order to expand its influence is never far from the minds of moderate Arab rulers.
And for those moderates, the picture that's emerging can hardly be comforting. The leaders who seem most vulnerable to the unrest have been moderate, pro-Western rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen, who have tried to varying degrees to bend to the protesters.
Meanwhile, the hardliners in Syria and Iran, and those within Lebanon's Hezbollah leadership and Gaza's Hamas government, still seem secure.
Thus, there's a real chance that regional momentum will tip further away from both moderate leaders and pro-democracy forces if Libya's rebels fail. Left standing would be Mr. Gadhafi, doubtless made more radical by a near-death experience.
At the same time, though, it's also clear that Iran would try to use any Western military move to aid Libya's rebels to its advantage, and as an excuse to crack down harder on dissent. In the twisted logic of Iran, popular uprisings in the region are admirable examples of Mideast peoples throwing off oppressive regimes, except in Iran itself, and are worthy of support, except from the West.
Hence, Major Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, the Iranian military's chief of staff, declared last week: "The reality is that the U.S. wants to stage a military intervention to find control over Libya's oil wells as it did in Iraq with the Iraqi oil."
That's why U.S. national security adviser Tom Donilon, in talking with journalists late last week, used the term "indigenous" four times to describe dissidents in Libya and elsewhere in the region. The U.S. wants rebels in both Libya and Iran to succeed without acquiring a made-in-America label. Unfortunately, the world may not work so neatly.
- Wasn't This Supposed To Be Just A No Fly Zone?
WH: Libya mission to go on until Gadhafi stops By JULIE PACE, Associated Press Julie Pace, Associated Press – Fri May 13, 6:43 pm ET WASHINGTON – The U.S. and NATO will continue military operations in Libya as long as Moammar Gadhafi keeps attacking...
- Samantha Powers: Obama's Speeches Inspired The Middle East Uprisings
I think Samantha Powers is right about this. The question is, will the unfolding of history reveal that these uprisings lead to the demolition of thug regimes, and the breakout of Freedom for millions of human beings. Or will these uprisings lead to more...
-
NOT DAYS, NOT WEEKS -- LIBYA OP TO LAST MONTHS WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S.-led military action in Libya has bolstered rebels fighting Moammar Gadhafi's forces, but the international operation could continue for months, the Obama administration says. Ahead...
- Arab League Now Critical Of The West's Military Action Against Gadaffi
Could we not see THIS coming? The tribal mentality as Muslims continue along the mindset of us (non-Muslims) vs. them (Muslims):The Arab League chief said on Sunday that Arabs did not want military strikes by Western powers that hit civilians when the...
- For What It's Worth
"Hillary's War" "Obama's War" I'm going to admit to not being bullish on U.S. involvement in this. Should the people of Libya be free to choose their own leaders and throw out a despotic madman? Absolutely. I believe that deeply in my soul....
Green Energy
Wall Street Journal:
Iran Looms Large in Libya Decisions
As debate escalates over whether to intervene militarily to help Libyan rebels oust Muammar Ghadafi, the specter lurking in the background—both for those who want to intervene and those wary of doing so—is Iran.
The Iranian factor is little discussed but omnipresent. Understanding how it forms the backdrop is crucial to understanding the argument unfolding this week, in Washington, in Europe and at the United Nations, about whether to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.
Those pushing for intervention worry that the lesson Iran will take away if Mr. Gadhafi survives is that leaders who give ground to democracy protesters (see Hosni Mubarak) are swept away. Meanwhile, those who brutally crush protesters (Libya's strongman) are the ones who hang on. For Iranian leaders already disposed to crushing their own pro-democracy dissidents, the message will be clear.
Those wary of intervening, including many in the Obama administration, worry that Western intervention will play directly into the narrative Tehran's leaders have been spinning to justify cracking down on their own dissidents: that the U.S. and its Zionist allies are waiting to take advantage of any Mideast unrest to seize control of the region and its oil assets.
This Iranian narrative holds that the protesters in Tehran's streets are either active or unwitting agents of this insidious American conspiracy. Because any military intervention in Libya inevitably would be led by American forces, it would be used to further the argument. Indeed, an examination of statements by Iranian leaders in recent days shows this is precisely how they are framing the Libya question.
With Iran in position to make trouble by fomenting unrest among its Shiite brethren in nearby Bahrain, the question of how Mideast turmoil might advance Tehran's interests already loomed large. Now it figures to play more directly into the Libya debate, for Tehran is trying to play both sides of the argument, rhetorically supporting the Libyan rebels while opposing Western help for them.
The debate took on a whole new cast over the weekend when the Arab League, in a stunning turn, asked the United Nations Security Council to establish a no-fly zone to prevent a fellow Arab leader, Mr. Gadhafi, from using his own aircraft against Libyan rebels. Coupled with the fact that rebels seem to be losing ground in Libya's east, the Arab League statement prompted a new discussion at the U.N. on Monday.
Still, reluctance persists. China, which happens to hold the presidency of the Security Council this month, resists any military move. The fact that Libya's neighbor, Algeria, opposed the Arab League request undercuts the message to some extent.
Meantime the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq, which illustrate that military intervention is easy to start and hard to finish, and that the U.S. will be expected to fix any country it enters, continue to weigh heavily on the Obama administration.
It's hard to know how much Iran figured in the Arab League's decision to ask for a no-fly zone. But clearly, the specter of a radical Iranian regime taking advantage of unrest in the region in order to expand its influence is never far from the minds of moderate Arab rulers.
And for those moderates, the picture that's emerging can hardly be comforting. The leaders who seem most vulnerable to the unrest have been moderate, pro-Western rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen, who have tried to varying degrees to bend to the protesters.
Meanwhile, the hardliners in Syria and Iran, and those within Lebanon's Hezbollah leadership and Gaza's Hamas government, still seem secure.
Thus, there's a real chance that regional momentum will tip further away from both moderate leaders and pro-democracy forces if Libya's rebels fail. Left standing would be Mr. Gadhafi, doubtless made more radical by a near-death experience.
At the same time, though, it's also clear that Iran would try to use any Western military move to aid Libya's rebels to its advantage, and as an excuse to crack down harder on dissent. In the twisted logic of Iran, popular uprisings in the region are admirable examples of Mideast peoples throwing off oppressive regimes, except in Iran itself, and are worthy of support, except from the West.
Hence, Major Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, the Iranian military's chief of staff, declared last week: "The reality is that the U.S. wants to stage a military intervention to find control over Libya's oil wells as it did in Iraq with the Iraqi oil."
That's why U.S. national security adviser Tom Donilon, in talking with journalists late last week, used the term "indigenous" four times to describe dissidents in Libya and elsewhere in the region. The U.S. wants rebels in both Libya and Iran to succeed without acquiring a made-in-America label. Unfortunately, the world may not work so neatly.
- Wasn't This Supposed To Be Just A No Fly Zone?
WH: Libya mission to go on until Gadhafi stops By JULIE PACE, Associated Press Julie Pace, Associated Press – Fri May 13, 6:43 pm ET WASHINGTON – The U.S. and NATO will continue military operations in Libya as long as Moammar Gadhafi keeps attacking...
- Samantha Powers: Obama's Speeches Inspired The Middle East Uprisings
I think Samantha Powers is right about this. The question is, will the unfolding of history reveal that these uprisings lead to the demolition of thug regimes, and the breakout of Freedom for millions of human beings. Or will these uprisings lead to more...
-
NOT DAYS, NOT WEEKS -- LIBYA OP TO LAST MONTHS WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S.-led military action in Libya has bolstered rebels fighting Moammar Gadhafi's forces, but the international operation could continue for months, the Obama administration says. Ahead...
- Arab League Now Critical Of The West's Military Action Against Gadaffi
Could we not see THIS coming? The tribal mentality as Muslims continue along the mindset of us (non-Muslims) vs. them (Muslims):The Arab League chief said on Sunday that Arabs did not want military strikes by Western powers that hit civilians when the...
- For What It's Worth
"Hillary's War" "Obama's War" I'm going to admit to not being bullish on U.S. involvement in this. Should the people of Libya be free to choose their own leaders and throw out a despotic madman? Absolutely. I believe that deeply in my soul....