Brookings Runs a 3 team Simulation of Israel attacks Iran, and it’s a DOOZY
The simulation was conducted as a three-move game with three separate country teams. One team represented a hypothetical American National Security Council, a second team represented a hypothetical Israeli cabinet, and a third team represented a hypothetical Iranian Supreme National Security Council. The U.S. team consisted of approximately ten members, all of whom had served in senior positions in the U.S. government and U.S. military. The Israel team consisted of a halfdozen American experts on Israel with close ties to Israeli decision-makers, and who, in some cases, had spent considerable time in Israel. Some members of the Israel team had also served in the U.S. government. The Iran team consisted of a half-dozen American experts on Iran, some of whom had lived and/or traveled extensively in Iran, are of Iranian extraction, and/or had served in the U.S. government with responsibility for Iran.
You know that for the USA these are exactly the kinds of putzes around the president. And in a realistic move…
the game instead began with all teams receiving reports that a large-scale Israeli strike had already taken place against Iran, motivated by the breakdown of talks between Iran and the P5+1, the failure of the United Nations Security Council to endorse more than symbolic new sanctions against Iran, and the acquisition of highly valuable but highly perishable intelligence information regarding the existence of two secret Iranian nuclear facilities. Control opted to have Israel not tell the United States before the strike that it would be attacking
As we have seen already Israel has told the WORLD they will not tell the USA. The sim makes the point that it was better for the USA to be surprised than if Israel had been surprised by a US reaction to forewarning. But..
The American-Israeli bickering created unhelpful opportunities for an aggressive Iran team.
While the USA did pledge to come to Israel’s defense….
Right from the outset, the U.S. team insisted that Israel take no further offensive military action—initially toward not just Iran, but its Lebanese and Palestinian allies as well. The U.S. team called for restraint on all sides and was heavily focused on the danger of unintended escalation, not wanting the United States to be dragged into a conflict with Iran that was not of Washington’s making.
And that limited the entire scenario. The American priority was to turn it off, not create for the Iranians a situation in which they could get rid of the mullahs and the IRGC themselves. Thus, preserving for another day the SAME SITUATION when a reconstituted nuclear program by the Iranians and NORKS re-presented itself.
That is CERTAINLY what this admin would do, and PRECISELY what our institutions are designed to do. But can the Israelis wait for Feb. 2013?
It took the USA 10 months to produce enough fissionable U235 for several weapons in 1944-45. Iran can STILL think they can hand off a crude shielded weapon in a truck or container and get it into Israel. They might not think they need to get it onto a jet or missile.
The strategic problem are the MULLAHS not the nukes.
Well worth a read.
The money line?
the constant American efforts to reach out to Iran, to engage it in direct negotiations, and to restrain Israel even in the face of repeated Iranian retaliation was read by the Iran team as weakness or war weariness on the part of the United States
Brookings is regarded as a center to left of center institute.
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