Green Energy
At Hot Air, Captain Ed posts a video from MSNBC that points out that Israel's strategy in Gaza is to hit Hamas' infrastructure while minimizing collateral damage to civilians. That's a fair description of our strategy. Where I differ with Ed is his implication that Israel's best case scenario in Gaza is to reinstall the rule of 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen's Fatah movement.
There are alternatives to Hamas rule in Gaza other than Fatah. Michael Oren suggests the Egyptian army (Hat Tip: Memeorandum), which might appeal to some Israelis, but is likely to be rejected by an Egyptian government that already fears being seen (with some justification) as colluding with Israel. Besides, Israel has reason not to trust Egypt either. The Egyptians helped Hamas smuggle weapons in the past.
Others have suggested an 'international force,' but we know that has not worked well in Lebanon, and that any foreign troops would likely become a nuisance (or worse) if Israel were to have to re-enter Gaza. One of the big questions in Lebanon right now is how Israel will handle UNIFIL if Hezbullah attacks and Israel has to go back into southern Lebanon (probably by encouraging UNIFIL to run away). Remember the European monitors in the Philadelphi corridor? They fled when Hamas took over.
Israel's only real choice seems to be what it did in Judea and Samaria in 2002: Reoccupy the Gaza Strip. While the government keeps swearing to us that it won't do that, and while many Israelis are loathe to even consider it, it's the only way Israel can ensure quiet in the south. It's worked since 2002 in the major cities of Judea and Samaria. With the Hamas leadership and its infrastructure demolished, there's no reason it cannot work in Gaza too.
Cross-posted to Israel Matzav.
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USA Today: Hamas leader: Armed resistance best GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — A senior leader of the Gaza Strip's ruling Hamas movement says armed resistance is the "most effective" way to fight the Israelis, and that Palestinian plans to ask the...
- Did Egypt Sell Out Hamas?
Hamas is accusing the Arab nations in general, and Egypt and Fatah in particular, of having sold it out by not warning that an Israeli attack was imminent. A Hamas official told The Jerusalem Post that the reason why security installations in the Gaza...
- Hamas Slays At Least 6 People At Arafat Rally
The AP reports that more violence has taken place: GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Hamas security forces opened fire Monday at a rally by the rival Fatah movement commemorating Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Six people were killed in the bloodiest day of intra-Palestinian...
- Hamas-fatah Violence Bleeds On, And So Do The Casualties
Well, it figures that the bloodshed, once started, would not cease so easily, and it didn't. The civil war between Hamas and Fatah continues: GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Gunmen armed with mortars and grenades fought in several areas of Gaza City...
- Tension Erupts Between Fatah, Hamas In Gaza
From Yahoo News:GAZA (Reuters) - A bomb blew up outside the house of a senior Palestinian security commander in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, increasing tensions between President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction and the militant Islamic group Hamas.The...
Green Energy
Do we need an exit strategy?
At Hot Air, Captain Ed posts a video from MSNBC that points out that Israel's strategy in Gaza is to hit Hamas' infrastructure while minimizing collateral damage to civilians. That's a fair description of our strategy. Where I differ with Ed is his implication that Israel's best case scenario in Gaza is to reinstall the rule of 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President With Egypt already blaming Hamas for the war and Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah an available option, Gazans may not stick with Hamas for much longer — or so the Israelis must hope.While it is true that Hamas took over the Gaza Strip violently in June 2007, that doesn't mean that Gazans would prefer Fatah's rule. Fatah was hated in Gaza long before Hamas took over there. You may recall that Fatah's 'strongman' in Gaza - Mohamed Dahlan - escaped to Egypt a few days before the coup. Gazans aren't going to wake up tomorrow morning and agree to Fatah - which they disdain as both secular and corrupt - returning to power. Gaza's population is very different from that of Judea and Samaria. It's much more Islamist. And Fatah cannot even handle Judea and Samaria without the IDF's assistance (all the stories we keep hearing about how many Fatah 'police' have been deployed notwithstanding - we already know how abysmally those 'police' have been 'trained'). How will Fatah control Gaza with the additional weaknesses of "poor lines of communication [and] no strategic position"?
There are alternatives to Hamas rule in Gaza other than Fatah. Michael Oren suggests the Egyptian army (Hat Tip: Memeorandum), which might appeal to some Israelis, but is likely to be rejected by an Egyptian government that already fears being seen (with some justification) as colluding with Israel. Besides, Israel has reason not to trust Egypt either. The Egyptians helped Hamas smuggle weapons in the past.
Others have suggested an 'international force,' but we know that has not worked well in Lebanon, and that any foreign troops would likely become a nuisance (or worse) if Israel were to have to re-enter Gaza. One of the big questions in Lebanon right now is how Israel will handle UNIFIL if Hezbullah attacks and Israel has to go back into southern Lebanon (probably by encouraging UNIFIL to run away). Remember the European monitors in the Philadelphi corridor? They fled when Hamas took over.
Israel's only real choice seems to be what it did in Judea and Samaria in 2002: Reoccupy the Gaza Strip. While the government keeps swearing to us that it won't do that, and while many Israelis are loathe to even consider it, it's the only way Israel can ensure quiet in the south. It's worked since 2002 in the major cities of Judea and Samaria. With the Hamas leadership and its infrastructure demolished, there's no reason it cannot work in Gaza too.
Cross-posted to Israel Matzav.
-
USA Today: Hamas leader: Armed resistance best GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — A senior leader of the Gaza Strip's ruling Hamas movement says armed resistance is the "most effective" way to fight the Israelis, and that Palestinian plans to ask the...
- Did Egypt Sell Out Hamas?
Hamas is accusing the Arab nations in general, and Egypt and Fatah in particular, of having sold it out by not warning that an Israeli attack was imminent. A Hamas official told The Jerusalem Post that the reason why security installations in the Gaza...
- Hamas Slays At Least 6 People At Arafat Rally
The AP reports that more violence has taken place: GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Hamas security forces opened fire Monday at a rally by the rival Fatah movement commemorating Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Six people were killed in the bloodiest day of intra-Palestinian...
- Hamas-fatah Violence Bleeds On, And So Do The Casualties
Well, it figures that the bloodshed, once started, would not cease so easily, and it didn't. The civil war between Hamas and Fatah continues: GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Gunmen armed with mortars and grenades fought in several areas of Gaza City...
- Tension Erupts Between Fatah, Hamas In Gaza
From Yahoo News:GAZA (Reuters) - A bomb blew up outside the house of a senior Palestinian security commander in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, increasing tensions between President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction and the militant Islamic group Hamas.The...