Green Energy
Counterterrorism Blog:
by Walid Phares
As reports are confirming the elimination of Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, including Pakistani sources to al Jazeera, a growing debate is widening in the international media about the "value" of that event. Some analyses are using terms such as "turning point," while other are describing it as "lethal hit against Pakistan's Taliban." Evidently, authorities in Pakistan and the United States are logically rejoicing for the fact that a tough foe is gone. Intelligence estimates will soon tell how important what that successful drone and what would the field consequences be in the next weeks, months and maybe a year or two.
But it is important that the expert community help the public and decision makers in making a fair and accurate assessment of the event with the correct understanding of the value of the tactics employed on the Pakistan's front with the Taliban; but also one should suggest that no excesses should be projected in over estimating the impact on the "war." As the discussion is ongoing in the media and inside Government circles, following are eight points of assessment to be considered:
1. Tactically, the elimination of Baitullah Mehsud, as the direct commander of the Taliban terror networks is a real field victory for Pakistan's Government and, in perspective, a payback for the assassination of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Moreover, the vanishing of Mehsud can create conditions for progress of Pakistan's forces in south Waziristan, only for a short period of time and if Islamabad can mobilize enough popular support for the next stage of engagement against the Taliban.
2. It is also a victory to the global US intelligence and an indicator to current and future successful strikes via the technology employed by American deployment out of Afghanistan. It adds some deterrence to NATO presence in the region, but again, within limitations.
3. It will put some pressure on the Taliban and also on al Qaeda inside Pakistan, and psychological pressure on the Taliban inside Afghanistan
4. It could ease some past tensions between US and Pakistan military authorities regarding the use of missiles and drone attacks against Taliban, across the borders; but it will not transform the current discrete cooperation into a NATO like open collaboration.
However, on the other hand
a. We know almost for sure that the Taliban will select a new leader who will replace Mehsud. They may well select or add later a member of his own clan, family or entourage. The assessment will be made by the "war room" of the Jihadists in the region. In short, undoubtedly the Taliban campaign will continue.
b. Also one has to be ready that Taliban Pakistan, or their allies inside the country (and they have many) may try to assassinate important figures inside Pakistan, in retaliation.
d. Hence the elimination of Baitullah Mehsud is a tactical turning point that could be used to provoke more crumbling, but the window is very short.
e. Jihadi media and some al Jazeera commentators say his elimination will affect but not crumble the Taliban.
- You Can't Make This Shit Up
Mehsud Killed, replaced by Mehsud who was killed by rival for the position Wali-ur-Rehman who was then killed. Position still open. Anyone interested? And you though American Politics was rough. Jawa: Hakimullah Mehsud killed in armed clash: sources That...
- Exclusive: Taliban Buying Children For Suicide Bombers
Washington Times: Taliban buying children for suicide bombers Sara A. Carter (Contact) Pakistan's top Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is buying children as young as 7 to serve as suicide bombers in the growing spate of attacks against Pakistani,...
- Deadliest Strike Yet In Pakistan ... 3 Drones? Nascent Cyberdyne War?
In 2002 I told one of my Arab colleagues that before the war was over, we would see a critical victory gained by a young pizza eating American about 18 years of age, guiding a robot, with a controller from thousands of miles away. They told me I...
- The Afghan-pakistani Problem
As I wrote some days ago, the Pakistani Frontier Corps is infiltrated by Al-Qaeda "militants" terrorists, that regularly help the Talibans crossing the frontier to Afghanistan. There are several European Muslim converts who have been seen heading for...
- Baitullah Mehsud, And His 20,000 Man Army? Within Pakistan?
GERTZ:Baitullah Mehsud is regarded as one of the biggest Al Qaida threats to Pakistan President Musharraf. Mehsud, a senior commander in Al Qaida, has used his strong connections with Pakistan's military and intelligence services to conduct...
Green Energy
Early Assessment of the elimination of Taliban commander Mehsud
Counterterrorism Blog:
by Walid Phares
As reports are confirming the elimination of Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, including Pakistani sources to al Jazeera, a growing debate is widening in the international media about the "value" of that event. Some analyses are using terms such as "turning point," while other are describing it as "lethal hit against Pakistan's Taliban." Evidently, authorities in Pakistan and the United States are logically rejoicing for the fact that a tough foe is gone. Intelligence estimates will soon tell how important what that successful drone and what would the field consequences be in the next weeks, months and maybe a year or two.
But it is important that the expert community help the public and decision makers in making a fair and accurate assessment of the event with the correct understanding of the value of the tactics employed on the Pakistan's front with the Taliban; but also one should suggest that no excesses should be projected in over estimating the impact on the "war." As the discussion is ongoing in the media and inside Government circles, following are eight points of assessment to be considered:
1. Tactically, the elimination of Baitullah Mehsud, as the direct commander of the Taliban terror networks is a real field victory for Pakistan's Government and, in perspective, a payback for the assassination of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Moreover, the vanishing of Mehsud can create conditions for progress of Pakistan's forces in south Waziristan, only for a short period of time and if Islamabad can mobilize enough popular support for the next stage of engagement against the Taliban.
2. It is also a victory to the global US intelligence and an indicator to current and future successful strikes via the technology employed by American deployment out of Afghanistan. It adds some deterrence to NATO presence in the region, but again, within limitations.
3. It will put some pressure on the Taliban and also on al Qaeda inside Pakistan, and psychological pressure on the Taliban inside Afghanistan
4. It could ease some past tensions between US and Pakistan military authorities regarding the use of missiles and drone attacks against Taliban, across the borders; but it will not transform the current discrete cooperation into a NATO like open collaboration.
However, on the other hand
a. We know almost for sure that the Taliban will select a new leader who will replace Mehsud. They may well select or add later a member of his own clan, family or entourage. The assessment will be made by the "war room" of the Jihadists in the region. In short, undoubtedly the Taliban campaign will continue.
b. Also one has to be ready that Taliban Pakistan, or their allies inside the country (and they have many) may try to assassinate important figures inside Pakistan, in retaliation.
d. Hence the elimination of Baitullah Mehsud is a tactical turning point that could be used to provoke more crumbling, but the window is very short.
e. Jihadi media and some al Jazeera commentators say his elimination will affect but not crumble the Taliban.
- You Can't Make This Shit Up
Mehsud Killed, replaced by Mehsud who was killed by rival for the position Wali-ur-Rehman who was then killed. Position still open. Anyone interested? And you though American Politics was rough. Jawa: Hakimullah Mehsud killed in armed clash: sources That...
- Exclusive: Taliban Buying Children For Suicide Bombers
Washington Times: Taliban buying children for suicide bombers Sara A. Carter (Contact) Pakistan's top Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is buying children as young as 7 to serve as suicide bombers in the growing spate of attacks against Pakistani,...
- Deadliest Strike Yet In Pakistan ... 3 Drones? Nascent Cyberdyne War?
In 2002 I told one of my Arab colleagues that before the war was over, we would see a critical victory gained by a young pizza eating American about 18 years of age, guiding a robot, with a controller from thousands of miles away. They told me I...
- The Afghan-pakistani Problem
As I wrote some days ago, the Pakistani Frontier Corps is infiltrated by Al-Qaeda "militants" terrorists, that regularly help the Talibans crossing the frontier to Afghanistan. There are several European Muslim converts who have been seen heading for...
- Baitullah Mehsud, And His 20,000 Man Army? Within Pakistan?
GERTZ:Baitullah Mehsud is regarded as one of the biggest Al Qaida threats to Pakistan President Musharraf. Mehsud, a senior commander in Al Qaida, has used his strong connections with Pakistan's military and intelligence services to conduct...