Gertz : Major debate raging among Iran's leaders over war options

LONDON -- Iran's top leadership is at odds over the feasibility of a major war in the Middle East between late 2008 and 2009.

Western intelligence sources said Iran has been preparing its military while debating the feasibility of an offensive against Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states. The sources said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been clamoring for a war option should Israel and the United States continue preparations for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

They want to attack Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Israel? Is there anyone who believes they can achieve victory over those nations? What is it they are really trying to achieve?

Military ships and helicopters of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards seen off the coast of Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. AFP/IRNA

"Ahmadinejad has been arguing that Iran has never enjoyed such favorable conditions for an attack," a senior intelligence source said. "

The Iranian assessment is that the European Union is dependent on foreign energy, the Arabs have retreated into submission, Iraq could be annexed, Turkey is paralyzed and Israel is weak. The only threat is [U.S. President George] Bush."

Ahmadinejad was said to be opposed by a group led by former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The sources said Rafsanjani has warned that Iran must consider a suspension of its uranium enrichment program to prevent a massive Israeli and U.S. air strike.

"Rafsanjani has not argued for surrender," another intelligence source said. "His argument is that Iran should conduct a tactical withdrawal until the United States pulls out from Iraq. Then, Iran could resume its nuclear weapons program and threaten the region."

I believe this. One guy wants to attack and the moderate wants to wait until we are gone. I think this is a perfect frame for the real spectrum of what this government wants.

The sources said the Iranian leadership could resolve the debate in late 2008. They said Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been monitoring the nation's combat readiness, tested in a series of massive military exercises.

"Over the next few weeks, the Iranian leadership could reach a determination whether Teheran would be ready for a total war," the source said.