If the US abandons Israel, will Russia fit the bill?

On March 30th DEBKA reported

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that the Obama administration is on the threshold of a major rapprochement with Tehran, a reversal of US policy dramatic enough to block out international sanctions. Iran will be allowed to keep its nuclear program, including military elements and enriched uranium stocks, up to the point of actually assembling a weapon. [..]

The US president is willing to ditch Israel as a friend. This will be brought home to Jerusalem when he makes his big speech on April 7 appealing for a grand US-Muslim global reconciliation. The US president is preparing to tie a Palestinian-Israeli settlement - on Washington’s terms - to such unrelated issues as Afghanistan and Pakistan as the currency for purchasing Muslim and Arab backing for accommodations of these outstanding terrorist fronts.

Scary stuff.

Israel may decide to say “no” to a sovereign Palestine and “no” to giving up the Golan, in which caseObama’s entire Muslim outreach crashes. He will have no choice but to go to the mat with Israel. In fact the more he beats up on Israel, the better his relations with Iran will be. He needs Iran to be a partner, not an enemy. He needs Iran to help in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Obama will have to convince Saudi Arabia and Egypt that such a rapproachment is good for them, too. That leaves Israel out in the cold.

...

Russia also voted for the establishment of Israel and was one of the first countries to recognize her. The US would have voted against Israel’s establishment but for the intervention of President Truman.

In 1956, Britain and France had need for Israel’s help in reversing the takeover by Nasser of the Suez Canel. They invaded the Sinai together. So Britain was once again Israel’s friend. But America under Eisenhower, became the enemy of all three and forced them to retreat from the Sinai. This was Eisenhower’s Arab outreach.

It was around this time that Russia became estranged from Israel and embraced Egypt, Syria and Iraq instead.

France became Israel’s patron and chief arms supplier. France also was instrumental in setting up Israel’s nuclear plant at Dimona. You will recall that in the ‘67 war, Israel used France’s Mirage jets. The American embargo continued but was soon to change.

Shortly after this war, France withdrew its support from Israel. The US became Israel’s supplier and patron with the intent of dislodging Russia from the ME. The US befriended the Arabs by restraining Israel in both the ‘67 War and the ‘73 war. This policy enabled the US to replace Russia as Egypt’s patron. As a reault of the Iraq War, the US also ousted Russia from Iraq.

Meanwhile the US had been ousted from Iran and Russia/USSR over time filled the gap.

Now Obama is working to replace Russia in both Syria and Iran. To do this she must throw Israel under the bus.

Thus it becomes in Russia’s interest to strengthen Israel to resist being sacrificed to the detriment of Russia. Russia does not want to lose its influence in Iran and Syria.

As they say, “what comes around, goes around”.

During the cold war, the US was Pakistan’s patron and USSR/Russia had a close relationship with India. Since the fall of the USSR, both Russia and India have moved closer to Israel.

Russia needs to strengthen this relationship especially while the US has to nurture Pakistan at the expense of its relationship with India.

Russia has no need for Muslim oil. But it could use Israeli technology and so could India. Israel will need a patron to exercise her veto in the Security Council. She will also need markets to replace the loss of the EU as its principal trading partner.