Okay, game out the ways this can end:Iranian (crewed and owned) aid ships head for Gaza
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Okay, game out the ways this can end:Iranian (crewed and owned) aid ships head for Gaza


Schematic representation of the two methods wi...

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Source: Reuters
* First ship left Iran Sunday, another leaves this week
* Iran says will continue until Gaza blockade lifted
* 100,000 Iranians volunteer to crew ships - report

TEHRAN, June 14 (Reuters) - Iran is sending aid ships to blockaded Gaza, state radio said on Monday -- a move likely to be considered provocative by Israel which accuses Tehran of arming the Palestinian enclave's Islamist rulers, Hamas.

One ship left port on Sunday and another will depart by Friday, loaded with food, construction material and toys, the report said. The boats would be part of international efforts to break Israel's isolation of the Gaza Strip.


Okay then ... at the first action level ..

  1. We have the possibility the ships sail right to Gaza without incident, I rate that chance at ZERO
  2. Israel moves to stop the ships and the Iranian Quds Force IRGC troops among the 'passengers' provoke another incident ending in mass death on board
  3. Israel moves to stop the ships and disables them at sea leaving them with a choice of drifting or being towed into Ashkelon
  4. Israel moves to stop the ships and one of the patrolling Iranian Kilo subs attacks an Israeli ship on the pretext that Israel is committing an act of piracy
  5. Israel moves to stop the ships and detecting a Kilo in position to attack, attacks it
The first three do not lead to war. Number 3 is the only 'acceptable' answer in terms of the PR and the international lynch mob.

Would the Iranians be STUPID AND CRAZY enough to create a situation in which things can easily spiral out of all imaginable control?

Were HAMAS and Hezbollah shocked at the Israeli response to 3 kidnapped men by a corrupt liberal peacenik govt in 2006?

Any provocation by Iran, or action involving their perceived need for some tetstoreronicislamicide will have an excellent chance of an end result of regional war. And a great chance that regional war will ultimately lead to use of WMD ending with Israeli use of nuclear weapons.

Does Iran recognize this?

Do they think this way?

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