REPORTED BEFORE as early as 2006
GERTZ:
TEL AVIV -- Iran was said to be preparing to deploy a Soviet-origin intermediate-range ballistic missile that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead.Israeli intelligence sources said Iran is completing modifications of the BM-25 ballistic missile, supplied to Teheran in 2007. They said Russian scientists and engineers were preparing the BM-25 (R-27 / SSN-6) for operational use in 2009.
"The BM-25 would give Iran the capability to strike anywhere in the Middle East and Europe," an intelligence source said.
Over the last three years, Iran acquired several dozen BM-25s from North Korea and Ukraine. The intelligence sources said most of the Soviet-origin missiles, designed for ship launch, were deemed faulty or obsolete.
Iran acquired BM25 land-mobile missiles with launchers from North Korea and other sources. Now Russian scientists and engineers are said to be preparing the BM-25 for operational use. jcpa.org
Meanwhile Israel has prepared its own missile option against Iran, a report said.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies said Israel was preparing an intermediate-range missile attack option against Teheran. In a report, CSIS said Israel was deploying the Jericho-3 missile, with a payload of 750 kilograms, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
"If the Jericho-3 is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft," the report, titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities," said.
Authored by analyst Abdullah Toukan, the March 14 study said Israel's Jericho-3 contained a circle error of probability of several dozen meters. Toukan said the Jericho-3 could overcome the difficulties of an Israeli aircraft strike on Iran, located about 1,000 kilometers from the Jewish state.
"The most recent version of the [Jericho] missile seems to be a two-stage, solid-fuel propellant with a range of up to 900 miles [1,500 kilometers] with a 2,200 pound payload," the report said.
The 114-page study said any Israeli missile attack would spark an Iranian counter-strike. Toukan said Iran would use its Shihab-3B intermediate-range ballistic missiles against the Jewish state. The report said Iran was believed to have fewer than 100 such missiles.
The report said Israel was believed to have deployed Jericho-3 in late 2008 and might have stored the missile in Zeharya, near the city of Bet Shemesh. The missile was said to be designed to eventually reach a range of 6,500 kilometers.
"Israel has carried out the successful test launch of a long-range, ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead," the report said. "Israel has begun a program to extend the range of its existng Jericho-2 surface-to-surface missile. The Jericho-3 is planned to have a range of 4,800 kilometers to 6,500 kilometers which brings all of Iran and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries within range."
Toukan envisioned that most Iranian missiles would be intercepted by Israel's Arrow-2 ballistic missile defense system. He said that most of the incoming Iranian missiles would fall in neighboring Jordan.
The report said an Israeli strike would require advanced U.S. air-to-ground weapons. Toukan cited the GBU-27 BLU-109 2000-pound class penetrating warhead and the GBU-28 BLU-113 5000-pound class penetrating warhead for any mission to destroy Iran's Natanz centrifuge facility as well as the Isfahan uranium conversion facility.
"We can conclude that a military strike by the Israeli Air Force against Iranian nuclear facilities is possible, however, it would be complex and high risk in the operational level and would lack any assurances of a high mission success rate," the report said.
Israeli intelligence assessed that the BM-25 upgrade was coordinated with Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"The Iranians have been using components and technology from BM-25 to improve existing systems, including the Shihab," the intelligence source said.
On March 25, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin said Iran has reached the capability to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb.
Yadlin told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb within several months. Weapons-grade enrichment requires a 90 percent level.
"They are enriching fissile material in a low percentage of 4.5," Yadlin said. "But whoever knows how to enrich [fissile material] 4.5 percent knows also how to enrich it 20 percent, 60 percent or 93 percent. With 4,000 centrifuges spinning, to change from 4.5 percent to 93 percent takes only a few months to a year."
OK this is all very nice, but again I will make the point that any such attack will bring about attacks by Iran on Israel, US forces, Hormuz, Abqaiq, gas prices above the $4/gallon levels we saw last year, and calumny upon the state of Israel and jews around the world unseen since ... the first crusade?
Given this, and the fact that these items are NOT a deterrent to Israeli action compared to becoming toast, why would Israel NOT seek to take out the leadership of Iran and look for another regime entirely ... remember even another inimical regime, which is both non apocalyptic, not dedicated to a quranically based killing of the jews, and not inclined to support HAMAS and Hizballoid genocidal freaks is all it would take to create a VAST improvement in the wowrld situation.
Israel won't be looking for Jefferson and Madison over there.