In December of 2013 we found clues to the GOPe roadmap and began watching carefully.In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races. [Dixie states at the low end, and New England states at higher thresholds.]
If we were accurate in our hypothesis, which was actually based on their previous 2012 strategy to elect Mitt Romney, the 2014 mid-term visible GOP primary spending on incumbents, and alignments within the hierarchy of the Republican establishment – then we assume there would be two essential candidates:
Jeb Bush being candidate one, and Not-Jeb-Bush being the other.
This approach makes winning a matter of math, not ideology. The Sum of the Jeb Bush vote must be greater than any individual part within the Not-Jeb vote. That approach guarantee’s Jeb victory with far less than majority voter support.It seemed a little, well, “out there”; so in the Spring of 2014 we quietly established tripwires which would confirm if the roadmap was accurate.
One of those overall primary tripwires (about the 4th one) we established in 2014 was the sheer number of candidates that would be needed if Jeb was going to survive the lower support-margin, more conservative, states.
Each voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious. We called this “fracturing the block“.
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[Example: Tea Party conservative type voters would need multiple candidate options to fracture their voting block: (Walker, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio etc.)]
Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered. However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking.
Specifically because the number of candidate’s tripwire was triggered we began reviewing media notes for primary calendars, Super-PAC financing, inter-party alignment, money and state establishment party support.
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Now again, I am not a fan of Trump but I like that he is not only unafraid to touch third rails but grabs them and hangs on. Embraces them. He was right when he said in the debate they wouldn't even be talking about immigration if it were not for him.
His voice NEEDS to be heard and not shut out. If he is causing any schism in the Republican Party IT IS OF THEIR OWN DOING. Forcing issues out that they don't want to discuss. The boils are already there, he is merely applying the lancet.
Trying to shut him out only guarantees he will run as a third party. Let him have his say fairly like everyone else and let him lose fairly and he likely won't.
But if they try to ram Jeb down our throats there is a very good chance many (like myself) will vote for a third candidate or just stay home altogether since he seems to us not much different than presumptive nominee Hillary.
Something which also speaks to this bullshit 'electability"
If Trump is still ahead in the polls after Thursday's bloodfest it must say something about HIS electability. Someone out there must like him and be willing to vote for him.
And finally, for this reason and his shabby and petulant treatment of Trump and trying to just shut him down, I have cancelled my years long running to subscription to Erik Erickson and Red State. I personally will also no longer link or post anything by them.
Other writers on this blog may disagree with me on that and that's ok.
EVERY opinion has a right to be heard.
THAT'S America.
