Lies, Damn Lies etc
You'll recall last week when the monthly unemployment and weekly initial claims number came out there was an awful lot of WOOT! going on from the media knuckleheads about how great this news was things must be looking up. Even from people like Shep Smith and Neal Cavuto who really should have known better.
There was also a curious lack of WOOT!ing and victory lapping from the White House and administration. Perhaps it's because they knew the truth. Perhaps it was because they were too busy living large in Hawaii to give a shit either way.
Of course anyone reading IBA or a number of other blogs understood the bullshit going on behind the number. And we said we would pay for it when the next set of numbers came out.
Well, they're out. And for the week ending January 7,2012 the SEASONALLY adjusted first time claims number rose an (unexpected?) 24,000 claims from an adjusted 375,000 the previous week (it had been 372 or 374 more on that in a moment) to 399,000. Bad enough for a bullshit lie but still miraculously below the much touted magical 400,000 so many experts fret about.
The above paragraph should alert anyone to the games played. Firstly, of course, the obvious. Why was the previous week's number revised up? Well, to make this week's rise a little less painful. But it really doesn't matter because of that little word they keep sliding in there that NO ONE on TeeVee really pays attention to.
Adjusted.
When you look at the Bureau of Lies and Statistics full report you will should note the following:
Seasonally adjusted initial claims numbers for the last 3 weeks
Dec 24 -- 387,000
Dec 31 -- 375,000
Jan 7 -- 399,000
Total 1,161,000 newly unemployed persons. In three weeks. What the government will admit too publicly and accept as the "official" number.
Now, the almost truth. The NON-seasonally adjusted numbers for the same time period.
Dec 24 -- 497,689
Dec 31 -- 540,067
Jan 7 -- 642,381
Total 1,680,137 newly unemployed persons. And these are just the people actually filing for unemployment. There are many others who, for one reason or another, may not qualify to receive unemployment.
So NSA -- 1,680,137
less
SA -- 1,161,000
equals 519,137
That's a difference of more than a half million newly unemployed people IN THREE WEEKS that the administration has decided aren't important enough to include in their official number.
Think about that as you read the crap below. And bear in mind these numbers do NOT include the 99ers, those people still unemployed but who no longer can collect benefits and are therefore no longer counted as unemployed.
But most of all, for this post, keep in mind that here, in America, in just three weeks at Christmas time, one million six hundred and eighty thousand one hundred and thirty seven people lost their livelihood.
How many other people and families did that affect?
1,680,137
in 3 weeks.
That's some dandy Wreckovery.
CBNC:
U.S. jobless claims rise sharply to 6-week high
WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The number of Americans applying for first-time jobless benefits rose last week, a report showed on Thursday, reversing a recent decline and suggesting the labor market remains brittle.
Unemployment claims jumped to 399,000 in the first week of 2012, the highest in six weeks, from an upwardly revised 375,000 in the prior week. The four-week average of claims also marched higher to 381,750 from 374,000.
The Labor Department report also showed 3.63 million continuing claims, up from 3.61 million. Including the millions of workers receiving benefits under emergency federal programs, some 7.3 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits as of Dec. 24, the most recent date for which comprehensive figures are available.
The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen sharply in recent months and was 8.5 percent December, but some economists worry the drop has been due in part to discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force.
---------------------------------
Oh, what he hell. Just for shits and giggles here's the portion of the BLS report I refer too. The whole report can be read here
EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION | USDL 12-0025-NAT |
Program Contact: | TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS |
Scott Gibbons (202) 693-3008 | RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL |
Tony Sznoluch (202) 693-3176 | 8:30 A.M. (EDT), THURSDAY |
Media Contact : | January 12, 2012 |
(202) 693-4676 |
|
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 399,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,750, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 374,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending December 31, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 31, was 3,628,000, an increase of 19,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,609,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,605,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised average.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 642,381 in the week ending January 7, an increase of 102,314 from the previous week. There were 773,499 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending December 31, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,139,988, an increase of 360,884 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.8 percent and the volume was 4,790,155.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending December 24 was 7,333,213, an increase of 111,010 from the previous week.
Extended benefits were available in Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending December 24.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,640 in the week ending December 31, a decrease of 452 from the prior week. There were 1,896 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 436 from the preceding week.
There were 29,868 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending December 24, a decrease of 909 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 42,096, a decrease of 256 from the prior week.
States reported 2,926,676 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending December 24, a decrease of 5,885 from the prior week. There were 3,773,092 claimants in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 24 were in Alaska (7.4), Oregon (4.5), Idaho (4.1), Montana (4.1), Pennsylvania (4.1), Puerto Rico (4.1), Wisconsin (4.1), Nevada (3.8), New Jersey (3.8), Arkansas (3.7), Illinois (3.7), Michigan (3.7), and Rhode Island (3.7).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 31 were in Michigan (+10,364), Wisconsin (+10,203), Pennsylvania (+8,135), New Jersey (+7,989), and New York (+7,746) while the largest decreases were in California (-23,969), Illinois (-4,696), Texas (-2,385), Nevada (-1,590), and Kansas (-1,341).
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
WEEK ENDING | Advance Jan. 7 | Dec. 31 | Change | Dec. 24 | Prior Year1 |
|---|
Initial Claims (SA) | 399,000 | 375,000 | +24,000 | 387,000 | 437,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims (NSA) | 642,381 | 540,067 | +102,314 | 497,689 | 773,499 |
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 381,750 | 374,000 | +7,750 | 376,500 | 420,500 |
WEEK ENDING | Advance Dec. 31 | Dec. 24 | Change | Dec. 17 | Prior Year1 |
|---|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) | 3,628,000 | 3,609,000 | +19,000 | 3,616,000 | 3,946,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) | 4,139,988 | 3,779,104 | +360,884 | 3,612,458 | 4,790,155 |
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 3,605,000 | 3,605,000 | 0 | 3,602,500 | 4,076,250 |
-
Zero Hedge: Initial claims printed at 377K on expectations of 378K, the first beat of expectations in 5 weeks. Of course, the claims number next week will be revised to over 380K. Why? Because, as now happens every single week, last week's initial...
- Lies, Damn Lies And Statistics
Last Week: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's data was revised to show 8,000 more applications received than previously reported. This...
- Making An Increase A Decrease
Newsmax: Stubborn Unemployment Claims Suggest Slowdown in Job Creation The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits for the first time fell only slightly last week, dampening hopes of a pick-up in job creation in April after March's slowdown....
- Lies, Damn Lies Etc
You'll recall last week when the monthly unemployment and weekly initial claims number came out there was an awful lot of WOOT! going on from the media knuckleheads about how great this news was things must be looking up. Even from people like Shep...
- Wreckovery: 418,000 New Unemployment Claims Last Week
While much of America is distracted by the debt debate. . . CNBC: Unemployment Benefits Rise as Job Growth Falters New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, pointing to a labor...